Cambodia:CNRP Will Be Troublesome for CPP-Led Assembly

By Zsombor Peter - July 30, 2013

Despite suffering a major hit in the parliamentary election Sunday, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) will hold on to a majority of National Assembly seats for another five years should unofficial results released by the information minister stand.

Under the country’s Constitution, a simple majority is all that is needed to form a government and pass most laws.

But having relieved the CPP of its supermajority in Parliament, the opposition could make life very hard for Prime Minister Hun Sen, and for the first time turn the CPP-led Parliament into something more than a rubber stamp, analysts and legal experts said Monday.

“

Now they have to deal with the opposition, they cannot do like before,” said Son Soubert, a former member of the country’s Con­stitutional Council, who recently allied with the opposition.

With 123 seats in the Assembly, the CPP needed only 62 lawmakers to form the next government and says it won 68.

But Mr. Soubert said the magic number is actually 82 seats. That’s how many lawmakers the Assembly needs just to hold a meeting. Without that quorum, he said, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), which won the other 55 seats on Sunday, could effectively hold the government to ransom.

“What the Rescue Party can do, they can refuse to join the National Assembly, and then the National Assembly cannot form,” he said.

 

The Constitution says a “valid” meeting of the Assembly needs at least two-thirds of all lawmakers, or 82 members. After Sunday’s elections, the CPP is 14 seats short of the constitutional requirement.

The National Election Committee (NEC) has yet to endorse the information minister’s poll results released on Sunday evening. The CNRP has rejected that result and is demanding an independent investigation into allegations of widespread polling irregularities that it says may have robbed it of an outright victory.

But should the preliminary numbers roughly hold, said independent political analyst Kem Ley, the opposition can use the CPP’s modest majority to its advantage to push through parts of its own agenda.

The CPP may technically have enough votes to pass most laws short of a constitutional amendment, he said, but it won’t be passing much if the opposition refuses to let the National Assembly even meet.

“If they can’t persuade the opposition to attend the meeting, how can they pass the law?” he said. “They need the quorum to meet, so the CPP will need to compromise with the CNRP.”

Mr. Ley said he expected the CPP to give way on some of the opposition’s key campaign pledges, including raising wages for civil servants and tightening immigration policies.

Besides the legislative math, he said, the CPP could no longer ignore the reality that a great many Cambodians no longer want what it has to offer.

“They realize the majority of the people want change, that the people are not happy with them, so even though they control all the ministries they will feel pressure to change.”

Sok Sam Oeun, a prominent lawyer who heads the Cambodian Defenders Project, a legal aid NGO, said the momentum was clearly with the opposition.

“Right now they have the power,” he said. “The opposition can use this as a chance for compromise, otherwise they will not join the meeting to form the Parliament.”

Even if the opposition does let the CPP form the next government, it can still keep the Assembly from meeting any time it wants.

“It has a lot of power,” Mr. Sam Oeun said. “It has the power to negotiate and it can control the legislature.”

The opposition will not have a shot at any ministries without entering into an official coalition with the CPP, which Mr. Sam Oeun said was unlikely after the uninspiring example set by Funcinpec during its coalitions with the CPP.

After the royalist party joined the CPP as a junior coalition partner following the national elections in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, it won some ministry posts but watched its political fortunes steadily dwindle, and on Sunday failed to win a single Assembly seat.

“

The CPP wants a coalition,” Mr. Sam Oeun said. “For example after forming the coalition with Funcinpec, it could destroy Funcinpec.”

He said the opposition was more likely to try to parlay its newfound power into some control over a few Assembly commissions, the powerful finance commission first and foremost.

CPP lawmaker Chheang Vun, whose own Assembly seat was cast into some doubt after the party’s modest showing on Sunday in his home province of Battambang, said the prospects are still good for his party.

“I don’t know yet if the two parties have plans to talk about their roles on the nine commissions, but I think the CNRP will have a role,” he said. “I think the two parties will negotiate.”

But Mr. Vun dismissed any talk of a coalition with the CNRP or compromising with it on any new laws.

“We cannot follow the policies of the opposition party because the party lost the election,” he said. “They have no right to demand anything because the people voted for the Cambodian People’s Party.”

But a CPP secretary of state, speaking on condition of ano­nymity, conceded that business as usual at the National Assembly was likely over.

“The CPP will have [a] more difficult time in the National Assembly,” he said. “There will be more political discussion, more stalemate.”

The former Constitutional Council member, Mr. Soubert, said the CPP simply could not ignore the will of so many Cambodians who voted for change, and the violence that erupted on election day should remind the ruling party of the growing frustration of the people.

“The results clearly show that their policies are not exactly what the people wanted,” he said. “If the people feel frustrated, there will be unrest.”

(Additional reporting by Aun Pheap)

Ruling People's Party claims victory in Cambodian election

By Reuters, AFP

 

The Cambodian People's Party has claimed electoral victory. The long-serving Prime Minister's Hun Sen's party beat out seven other parties to retain control. 

Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (PPP) announced its victory in parliamentary elections on Sunday, saying it had won 68 of 123 seats.

"We can say we've won this election," party spokesman Khieu Kanharith told the AFP news agency.

Despite winning overall, with 55 parliamentary seats going to the opposition, the ruling party lost more than 20 seats in Sunday's election.

The National Election Committee has not yet published figures, but the information minister posted the above figures on his Facebook page, noting that they were the final count.

The leader of the opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party's (CNRP) Sam Rainsy, had announced a victory earlier but later withdrew the claim.

Long reign

Hun Sen, 60, has been at the helm in Cambodia, one of the world's poorest countries, for nearly three decades. He has been accused in the past of committing human rights violations and silencing detractors.

He cast his own ballot on Sunday morning near his home in Takhmau in Kandal province. His opponent, Rainsy, returned to Cambodia this month after four years of self-imposed exile, voting near his party's office in Phnom Penh, where he was greeted by enthusiastic supporters.

Sunday marked the fifth general election for Cambodia since 1993.

Reports of irregularity

The count of paper ballots began shortly after the polls closed on Sunday afternoon, with political party representatives keeping an eye on the process.

There were some reports of voting irregularities on social media and from election watchdog groups, but more information is unlikely to emerge until Monday.

tm/dr (Reuters, AFP)

Cambodia election: Hun Sen's ruling party claims victory

28 July 2013 Last updated at 15:50 GMT 

BBC/News Asia

 

Cambodia's ruling party has claimed victory in Sunday's elections, but is likely to have a much reduced majority.

The Cambodian People's Party (CPP) led by Prime Minister Hun Sen said it had won at least 68 seats, compared with 55 seats for the main opposition.

Official results have not yet been released, but if these numbers are confirmed it would be the CPP's worst performance in 15 years. 

Hun Sen has been in power in Cambodia for nearly three decades.

His main challenge in the elections is from the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), led by Sam Rainsy, who recently came back to the country from self-imposed exile. 

More than nine million people were eligible to vote, and results are expected later on Sunday.

Unfair polls?
 
The CPP had been widely expected to win the election.

The party enjoys considerable support in the countryside - in part due to the economic growth achieved there after the devastation caused by the Khmer Rouge regime in the 1970s, which was responsible for one of the worst mass killings of the 20th Century.

Younger voters were thought more likely to look for a change and back Sam Rainsy and the opposition.

In 2010 Mr Rainsy was sentenced in absentia to 11 years in prison, on a series of charges he says were politically motivated.

 

The party of Sam Rainsy, left, is Hun Sen's main challenge at the polls

 

But analysts say his return to the country early in July seems to have helped his party's cause.
Mr Rainsy's party has complained that the polls were fraudulent, with some voters unable to find their names on electoral lists.

Hun Sen, 60, was among the early voters on Sunday, casting his ballot shortly after polls opened near his home in Takmau, south of the capital Phnom Penh.

Sam Rainsy, 64, visited a polling station near his party's office in Phnom Penh where supporters greeted him enthusiastically.

"I am happy to see people flocking to vote," he said.


"I am happy to see people flocking to vote," he said.

Win, Lose or Share: Possible Scenarios After Election

By Denise Hruby - July 27, 2013

On Sunday, the nation will largely divide into two camps: There will be those who think that the past 20 years have brought fi­nancial and political stability, infrastructure and new business opportunities—in short, overall development and prosperity. And there will be those who, despite the progress, see that the past two decades have brought rampant corruption, abuse of human rights, land grabbing and the concentration of pow­er and wealth in the political families of Mr. Hun Sen’s ruling CPP.

The vote is expected to go the CPP’s way, giving Prime Minister Hun Sen another five years in pow­er, but independent analysts still believe that anything can happen. 

–News Analysis

“Among Cambodian observers, there are some who have inside knowledge and some who are armchair observers. Some say the CPP will win with a reduced majority, some say they [CPP and Cambodia National Rescue Party] are running neck-to-neck,” independent political analyst Lao Mong Hay said.

According to Mr. Mong Hay and other observers, there are three possible outcomes of Sunday’s vote: The CPP scores big and increases its parliamentary seats from the 90 it currently holds; the CPP loses seats to the CNRP, but still wins enough to form a new gov­ernment alone; or, the electorate produces a stunning surprise and the CPP loses to the CNRP.

Scenario 1: The CPP expands from 90 seats.

According to observers, even if the CPP wins another majority on Sunday, the huge outpouring of support for the CNRP has given Mr. Hun Sen and his long-ruling party food for thought, and there is a chance they may slightly change their policies to cater to the demands of a young generation of voters, who have moved to the opposition.

As some of the most senior CPP leaders are in the advanced stages of old age, changes in the CPP’s leadership should to be expected, particularly among aging ministers.

According to Mr. Mong Hay, Chan Sarun, minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, is in a particularly weak position if the CPP chooses to reform, as he has failed to improve production quality or implement policies that could make Cambodia competitive within the Asean community, particularly as the Asean free trade area is scheduled for 2015.

Hor Namhong, minister of foreign affairs, is also in a weakened position, Mr. Mong Hay said, after Cambodia’s unsuccessful bid for a non-permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council last year. Cambodia’s human rights record, particularly its treatment of refugees, was cited as one reason the country was not seen as a viable contender for the Security Council seat.

“The foreign affairs diplomacy was not successful at all, our policy has been the worst” in recent years, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Beyond likely reform in the CPP’s inner circle, a landslide win for Mr. Hun Sen’s party will also be met with deep disappointment by millions of opposition voters, especially the youth who will be going to the polls for the first time on Sunday and believe that they can bring about “change.”

If their hopes are dashed by a large CPP victory, or if they feel that they were cheated of their votes because of election irregularities, violence could erupt on the streets, independent political analyst Kem Ley said.

“If the CPP wins with a majority, the community as a whole will say the elections’ results were prepared earlier and that the voter lists were manipulated. Especially the young will do something against the results and the government will use bans and everything they can against the Cambodian youth. There will be violence and there will be bloodshed,” Mr. Ley said.

Eventually, the protests will subside, and another five years under the CPP will follow.

“Basically, it will be the exact same as before,” with minor changes, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Scenario 2: The CPP loses seats, but maintains a majority to form a government.

Losing its vast majority of seats at the National Assembly would be a wake-up call for the CPP and would seriously harm the position of Mr. Hun Sen as the ruling party’s long-standing candidate for prime minister. He has long positioned himself as the CPP’s lone candidate for prime minister, and a strong vote for the opposition could be seen as a symbolic defeat for Mr. Hun Sen as the ruling party’s candidate.

While CPP election posters focus on the party’s leadership triumvirate of Mr. Hun Sen, National Assembly President Heng Samrin and Senate President Chea Sim, this year’s campaign is much more focused on the prime minister, Mr. Mong Hay said.

“There is a move away from the collective leadership. Now, the message is: Hun Sen is the effective leader. He has the power, it’s all in his hands,” he said.

With the personality cult Mr. Hun Sen has created around his persona, the stakes are high on Sunday.

“If he loses the majority, his po­sition in the party is questionable, he will be in the position of Malaysia’s [Prime Minister] Najib [Razak],” who lost a majority in May and will likely be challenged for leadership of his own party later this year, Mr. Mong Hay said.

Currently, Mr. Hun Sen’s role as prime minister is uncontested, not least because his family members, especially his children, have risen to senior positions within the CPP and other key facilities to help secure their father’s position, he said.

A loss of seats by the CPP, however, would mean a change of CPP policies, as they would have to give way to some of the opposition’s ideas owing to the CNRP’s increased role in the Assembly.

The CNRP, as they have promised, will be expected to introduce harsher laws on immigration, especially for Vietnamese citizens, and labor reforms.

If the CPP loses more than 20 seats, major reforms within the party are likely to take place to appease young voters, said Mr. Ley.

“There will be a move from a policy that favors the rich to a policy for the poor,” Mr. Ley said.

The CNRP gaining seats, but not winning a majority, would also help maintain peace, he said. Opposition supporters would be satisfied with the result and the CPP would not fear an outright loss of their traditional power.

“Everybody would accept the results, especially if the CNRP gets 50 or 60 seats [of 123], they would be satisfied,” Mr. Ley said.

Scenario 3: The CPP loses to the CNRP.

Currently the most unlikely of outcomes, a CNRP win on Sun­day is also the most fraught. Mr. Hun Sen warned on many occasions last month that an opposition win would reignite civil war, though who would fight this war, Mr. Hun Sen did not reveal.

While CPP officials have said that they would accept the outcome of the elections, political analysts interviewed for this article parted company on what would happen if the CNRP were to win.

Mr. Mong Hay said that the CNRP would form a government, but would fail to rule due to CPP interference and boycotts.

“Most civil servants are CPP, they would demand higher wages, better working conditions or say they are lacking resources to implement policies,” which, eventually, would lead to the collapse of the new government, he said.

Mr. Ley, however, painted a darker picture, saying that a win for the CNRP would be the “worst thing that could happen.”

The CPP, Mr. Ley said, would try to cling to power by using police and military—both loyal to the CPP—and Mr. Hun Sen’s personal bodyguard unit, which is estimated now to be about 10,000 men and is armed with the best and most sophisticated weaponry of any fighting unit in the country.

“They will safeguard him [Mr. Hun Sen]. He can use them anytime he wants,” Mr. Ley said.

“There will be chaos, the [CPP] government will hold on to their power and Cambodia will be in the same situation as Burma in 1990 when the [National League for Democracy] won and the military party arrested almost all politicians,” Mr. Ley predicted.

No matter the outcome, this Sun­day will set the course for the next five years, and in many ways, the election has already been historic.

For the first time, opposition supporters have openly spoken their minds and donned CNRP hats and T-shirts in public without fearing the same intimidation as during previous elections.

A young generation of voters as well as the educated and urban middle-class, who spread and access information through social networks have become politically engaged and expect more than just basic stability and an absence of war, Mr. Mong Hay said.

“The legitimacy of the [CPP] elders comes from the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge regime but there is a new society where more and more people have access to media and social networks. They are more articulate and more educated and have different expectations,” Mr. Mong Hay said.

In the long run, he added, power will not be concentrated in one party forever.

© 2013, The Cambodia Daily. All rights reserved. No part of this article may be reproduced in print, electronically, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without written permission.

Cambodian election: Final push to finish line

Fri, 26 July 2013

Post Staff

For a month now, the campaign has grown increasingly frenetic. Supporters have poured into the streets by the tens of thousands for ruling and opposition party rallies alike. On motorbikes and by the truckload, campaigners have overrun cities large and small, chanting party slogans.

Today, that culminates in the largest day of campaigning yet, as parties strive to make one final pitch before the 24 hours of silence leading up to Sunday’s vote.

Nearly every one of the eight parties running — from the ruling Cambodian People’s Party down to the tiny Khmer Anti-Poverty Party — have big plans for the last day of the campaign period.
“We’re going to have a little fun on that last day,” Cambodia National Rescue Party lawmaker candidate Son Chhay told the Post.

Fresh from their cross-country tour, opposition leader Sam Rainsy and his deputy, Kem Sokha, will hit up battleground provinces Kampong Cham and Kandal today, finishing with a rally at Phnom Penh’s Freedom Park. 

The Cambodian People’s Party, meanwhile, is planning large rallies in nearly every major province, CPP spokesman and lawmaker candidate Khieu Kanharith said. 

“For the last day of campaigning, besides showing off in urban areas, we concentrate on rallying our supporters at the district and village level; this will make a difference,” Kanharith said.
Funcinpec, too, said it was expecting a few thousand supporters at rallies in Phnom Penh, Banteay Meanchey and Kampong Cham.

The show of support has been a marked about-face from previous elections, many observed.
“In terms of campaigning, I’ve never seen anything like it in terms of the activism, the youth involvement, the campaigning on the streets,” said Laura Thornton, resident director of the National Democratic Institute.

She and others highlighted a near complete lack of violence as a significant shift in the pre-election atmosphere.

The handful of incidents — which have included supporters from the opposition and ruling parties chucking water bottles at one another, a bullet fired into the CNRP offices, and fighting between young party activists that ended when shots were fired into the air — have been isolated and relatively injury-free.

“It’s been quite a change, and as a citizen, I’m happy to see it,” political analyst Lao Mong Hay said. “I feel there is a rebirth of cultural peace. It could be a step towards genuine democratisation.”

By the numbers

Eight political parties will duke it out for 123 seats across the Kingdom’s 24 provinces.
The ruling Cambodian People’s Party, which holds 90 of those seats, is expected to retain power — but victory won’t come without a fight from the Cambodia National Rescue Party.

This alliance, formed from a merger between the Sam Rainsy Party and the Human Rights Party in the wake of last year’s commune elections, will be hoping to do more than just build on the 29 seats they won last election.

The royalists, meanwhile, subsumed under the Funcinpec banner after a merger last year, have grand plans as well. Though Funcinpec won just two seats in 2008 and the now-defunct Norodom Ranariddh Party held only another two, party officials said they had high hopes for the future.

“Now [that] we joined together into one royalist party … our seats will increase this term,” said spokesman Tum Sambo. “We expect around 13, 14, 15 seats.”

For small parties, the chance to join the fight is half the battle.
“We don’t take the campaign so serious; what we take more seriously is the media,” said League for Democracy candidate Sang Leng, who is contesting Kampong Speu and, who, like others, complained that CPP domination of the media made it nearly impossible to get the word out.

At least 9.6 million people are registered to cast a ballot come Sunday for one of those eight parties. But how many show up is anyone’s guess. While 12 million ballot papers have been printed, it is likely overkill; in the past 15 years, voter turnout has been steadily declining.

Almost 94 per cent of voters cast a ballot in the 1998 election, a figure that fell to about 83 per cent five years later. At the 2008 election, only 75 per cent of those eligible to vote did so.
But voter numbers could be set to increase.

Analyst Mong Hay said that because the lead-up to the election had been calmer and less bloody than in previous campaigns, more people felt comfortable exercising their freedom to take sides.
“This time, the climate and environment is much, much different than previous elections. There have been fewer restrictions on the opposition and less intimidation,” he said. “I expect a bigger turnout than in previous elections.”

Looking forward
Almost doubtless, the CPP will win by a landslide. But for the first time since 1993, they will likely see a diminution in seat numbers, analysts predicted.

Shifting demographics, a re-energised opposition, and the near-surety that such meteoric gains can’t last forever, means the CPP will likely wind up ceding some seats to the CNRP.

“The opposition will make a big change, because the formula favours big parties,” said Cambodian Center for Human Rights president Ou Virak, who predicted that the CNRP could up the number of seats they held in Kampong Cham, Kampong Speu, Kandal, Prey Veng and Takeo provinces.

Less likely, however, was the possibility the CNRP could make inroads into remote, single-seat provinces.

“It’s nothing to do with rural and urban [however] … it’s more about access to radio. The CNRP is doing better in Phnom Penh because that’s where [radio] can be heard,” Virak said.

The labour force

Garment workers will be a key demographic in this election, as shown by the two major parties’ strong commitment to improving their minimum wage in the months before the election.

Most of the 400,000-plus workers in the industry are over 18, under 30 and female — and some researchers and social commentators believe them to be more politically aware and active than their counterparts at university.

The industry is divided along party lines. Pro-government unions take up most of the space; opposition-aligned unions — along with independent unions — do most of the striking outside factories, pleading for better working conditions.

“Most garment workers are pro-opposition and not voting in one area,” said Virak, from CCHR. “They’re returning home to areas where there is no media that the opposition can access. But they’re sharing a lot more information with their friends when they return to their provinces, which can have an overall impact.”

The land issue
According to NGOs, more than 700,000 people have been affected by land grabbing and forced displacement since 2000. About 10 per cent of the capital’s population — or 145,000 — have been evicted since that time.

The CNRP has made it a mission to put an end to forced displacement, but it remains to be seen to what extent it influences voters in eviction hotspots such as the Borei Keila and Boeung Kak communities in Phnom Penh and remote provinces such as Ratanakkiri, where economic-land concessions are swallowing up villages and forest.

Some affected by land disputes, however, are no longer in the Kingdom. They’re among the 300,000-plus Cambodians who have gone to Thailand in search of work.
Many of them work in factories or on Thai construction sites for companies that won’t allow them to return home to vote.

About three per cent of the vote will lie dormant across the western border — a figure that is higher when including Cambodian workers in other countries. None can lodge a ballot, because the government has no agreements with other countries to do so.

Demographic shift

Four million fewer voters were registered in 1998 than this election. As the population has surged and urbanisation has ballooned, the allocation of National Assembly seats has remained the same.
“It’s been 10 years and there have been significant shifts between populations in provinces. If you’re not shifting seats, you’re underweighting or overweighting votes,” Laura Thornton, resident director of the National Democratic Institute, told the Post last week.

Underscoring an increase in political activity in urban areas has been the number of youths campaigning across Phnom Penh in the past month.

This election will be Cambodia’s youngest. More than 3.5 million people between 18 and 30 will have the chance to vote, and for almost half of them, it will be their first national election.

Five years between elections is a long time. Technology moves fast, and since 2008’s election, the rise of social networking sites such as Facebook in Cambodia means young people are getting their information from sources other than just government-controlled media.

Keen to control the message, Hun Sen’s son, lawmaker candidate and youth-wing leader, Hun Many, earlier this week urged some 15,000 young CPP supporters to avoid rocking the boat.
“We have to protect the peaceful trees that we have been harvesting for fruit,” he told them.

Mounting concerns

With so many shifts since 2008, the stakes are high and complaints of irregularities are rife. Violence may indeed be a thing of the past, but non-ruling parties complained of ample interference, while monitors have repeatedly warned of the vast irregularities in the voter list. 

“The cheating has gotten quite serious,” said the CNRP’s Chhay, who pointed to ghost voters, duplicate names and people being left off the registry as the biggest concerns come Sunday.
Since the start of the campaign period, 304 complaints have been filed with the NEC, many of them focused on relatively small issues, said Ke Rith, deputy director of the NEC’s legal services and dispute department. 

“Most of the complaints are related to the destroying of leaflets or disturbing of campaigns, and this year, there has been some violence, of throwing stones at each others,” he said.

In a statement issued yesterday, election watchdog Comfrel said it had recorded a number of problems including threats made to opposition supporters, campaigning obstruction, outright or implied vote-buying, and unequal media access, among others. 

Supporters from almost every party, meanwhile, have complained of their signs being torn down, vandalism and intimidation.

“We come across all the hassles,” said Khmer Anti-Poverty Party president Daran Kravanh.
Bigger still, is the raft of problems with the voter lists, which monitors have been seeking to highlight for months.

In an audit published earlier this year, NDI and Nicfec warned that 9.4 per cent of voter names had been wrongfully removed, while hundreds of thousands of extra names were elsewhere bloating the rolls. Separately, the Post has uncovered tens of thousands of exact duplicate names.

“Many people have two names — [they’re listed] in Phnom Penh and in the provinces. We don’t know whether NEC will clean it,” said Nicfec’s Puthea. “It’s better this election [regarding campaign violence], but we could not say about fair and could not say about free.”

If hundreds of thousands show up on Election Day, meanwhile, to find they’re off the list when they believe they have registered, “they may not take it lightly”, said NDI’s Thornton. “It has the potential to lead to chaos at the poll.”

Excess voter registration figures, coupled with some half a million temporary ID replacement forms issued since election registration closed, opens up the possibility of problems, Thornton said. “I just think this is not boding well. It makes me concerned about the quality of the election.”

Seeking to allay such fears, spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Koy Kuong, insisted yesterday that elections would be “free, fair and peaceful”.

Speaking to reporters following a meeting between the foreign minister and the newly appointed Chinese ambassador, Kuong stressed that the government had similar wishes.

“We hope that the election will proceed smoothly, democratically and transparently; and not cause chaos as claimed by some.”

REPORTING BY SHANE WORRELL, CHEANG SOKHA, ABBY SEIFF, SEAN TEEHAN, KEVIN PONNIAH, STUART WHITE AND CHHAY CHANNYDA

កម្ពុជា​នឹង​មាន​បក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​១​ខ្លាំង

Friday, 26 July 2013

វណ្ណ វិរ័ន្ត 

 

 

 

ខណៈ​ដែល​ថ្ងៃ​បោះឆ្នោត ជ្រើស​រើស​តំណាង​រាស្ត្រ​សម្រាប់​នីតិកាល​ទី៥ កាន់​តែ​ខិត​ជិត​មក​ដល់​គណបក្ស​ធំ​ពីរ គឺ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​ដែល​ជា​គណបក្ស​កាន់​អំណាច និង​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ​ដែល​ជា​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង កំពុង​ខិតខំ​ឃោសនា​យ៉ាង​ខ្លាំង​ក្លា​តាម​គ្រប់​រូបភាព​ដើម្បី​ស្វែង​រក​ការ​ គាំទ្រ​ពី​ម្ចាស់​ឆ្នោត។

អ្នក​វិភាគ​ជា​ទូទៅ​ជឿ​ជាក់​ថា​គណបក្ស ប្រជាជន​នឹង​ឈ្នះ​ឆ្នោត​សម្រាប់​អាណត្តិ​នេះ​ទៀត ដោយ​ទទួល​បាន​អាសនៈ​ច្រើន​ជាង​គណបក្ស​ផ្សេងៗ​ទៀត នៅ​ក្នុង​រដ្ឋសភា។ នៅ​ក្នុង​ការ​បោះឆ្នោត ៤ លើក​កន្លង​មក​គឺ​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៣ ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៨ ឆ្នាំ ២០០៣ និង​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​ធ្លាប់​បាន​ចាញ់​ឆ្នោត​តែ​ម្តង​គត់ គឺ​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៣។ ក្រៅ​ពី​នេះ​សុទ្ធ​តែ​បាន​ឈ្នះ​ឆ្នោត ហើយ​ភាគរយ​នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​ទទួល​បាន មាន​ការ​កើន​ឡើង​ពី​អាណត្តិ​មួយ ទៅ​អាណត្តិ​មួយ។ តួ​យ៉ាង​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៣ ទទួល​បាន ៣៨% ស្មើ​នឹង ៥១ អាសនៈ នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៨ ទទួល​បាន ៤១,៤% ស្មើ​នឹង ៦៤ អាសនៈ នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៣ ទទួល​បាន ៤៧,៣% ស្មើ​នឹង ៧៣ អាសនៈ និង​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ ទទួល​បាន ៥៨,១% ស្មើ​នឹង ៩០ អាសនៈ។

ការ​កើន​ឡើង​ភាគរយ នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត និង​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​នេះ កើត​ឡើង​ដោយ​សារ​កត្តា​អំណោយ​ផល​ជា​ច្រើន ដូច​ជា​ការ​បែក​បាក់​ផ្ទៃ​ក្នុង​និង​ការ​ធ្លាក់​ចុះ​ប្រជាប្រិយ​ភាព​របស់​ គណបក្ស ហ៊្វុនស៊ិនប៉ិច ដែល​ជា​ដៃ​គូ​របស់​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​នៅ​ក្នុង​រាជ​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​ចម្រុះ ពី​អាណត្តិ​មួយ​ទៅ​អាណត្តិ​មួយ និង​ការ​បែក​ខ្ញែក​នៃ​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង។

រីឯ​គណបក្ស សម រង្សី ដែល​ជា​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​ដំបូង​គេ​វិញ ក៏​មាន​ការ​កើន​ឡើង​ភាគរយ​នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​និង​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​ដែរ គឺ​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៨ ទទួល​បាន ១៤% ស្មើ​នឹង ១៥ អាសនៈ នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៣ ទទួល​បាន ២១,៩% ស្មើ​នឹង ២៤ អាសនៈនិង​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨​ទទួល​បាន​២១,៩% ស្មើ​នឹង​២៦ អាសនៈ​។ ប៉ុន្តែ​ការ​កើន​ឡើង​ភាគរយ​នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​និង​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​នេះ មិន​មាន​ចំនួន​ច្រើន​ដូច​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​ទេ​។ចំណែក​គណបក្ស​សិទ្ធិ​មនុស្ស​ ដែល​ទើប​ចូល​រួម​បោះឆ្នោត​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ វិញ​ទទួល​បាន ៦,៦% ស្មើ​នឹង ៣ អាសនៈ។

ប្រសិន បើ​ប្រជា​ពលរដ្ឋ​ជា​ម្ចាស់​ឆ្នោត​ដែល​ធ្លាប់​គាំទ្រ​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​ទាំង​ ពីរ នៅ​បន្ត​គាំទ្រ​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង និង​បោះឆ្នោត​ឲ្យ​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ ហើយ​គណបក្ស​ថ្មី​នេះ អាច​អូស​ទាញ​យុវជន​ដែល​ទើប​មាន​សិទ្ធិ​បោះឆ្នោត​ថ្មី​ពី​អតីត​អ្នក​គាំទ្រ​ គណបក្ស ហ៊្វុនស៊ិនប៉ិច គណបក្ស នរោត្តម រណឫទ្ធិ និង​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន នោះ​នឹង​ធ្វើ​ឲ្យ​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​ក្លាយ​ជា​គណបក្ស​មួយ ដែល​អាច​ជា​គូ​ប្រជែង​ដ៏​ស្រួច​ស្រាល់​នឹង​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០១៣ និង​ពេល​អនាគត​។ ភាគរយ​នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត ៣១,៧% និង​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​ចំនួន ៤៣ ដែល​គណបក្ស ហ៊្វុនស៊ិនប៉ិច ធ្លាប់​ទទួល​បាន​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩៨ អាច​នឹង​ត្រូវ​ជំនួស​មក​វិញ​ដោយ​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ​។

ថ្នាក់​ដឹក​នាំ​របស់​គណបក្ស សម រង្សី និង​គណបក្ស​សិទ្ធិ​មនុស្ស​អាច​សម្លឹង​ឃើញ​ពី​លទ្ធភាព​បែប​នេះ​តាំង​ពី​ដំបូង ​ម៉្លេះ​មុន​ពេល​ដែល សម្រេច​ចិត្ត បង្កើត​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ ពីព្រោះ​បើ​ពិនិត្យ​មើល​ពី​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​ដែល​គណបក្ស​ទាំង​ពីរ​នេះ​ទទួល​បាន​ នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ គឺ​ស្មើ​នឹង ២៨,៥% ស្មើ​នឹង ១៧១៤៥៣០ សំឡេង​រួច​ទៅ​ហើយ​។ ដូច្នេះ​ត្រូវ​ការ​សំឡេង​គាំទ្រ​ត្រឹម​តែ ៣,២% ទៀត​ប៉ុណ្ណោះ ពី​យុវជន​ដែល​ទើប​មាន​សិទ្ធិ​បោះឆ្នោត​ថ្មី អតីត​អ្នក​គាំទ្រ​គណបក្ស ហ៊្វុន​ស៊ិន​ប៉ិច គណបក្ស នរោត្តម រណឫទ្ធិ និង​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន ដែល​នា​ពេល​នេះ មាន​សមាន​ចិត្ត​ចំពោះ​ការ​រួប​រួម​នេះ និង​ចង់​ឲ្យ​មាន​ការ​ផ្លាស់​ប្តូរ។

ម្យ៉ាង​ទៀត​ប្រព័ន្ធ​បោះឆ្នោត​សមាមាត្រ​ដែល​គិត​តាម​រូប​មន្ត​មធ្យម​ភាគ​ ខ្ពស់​បំផុត ក៏​នឹង​ជួយ​ផង​ដែ​រដល់​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​ថ្មី​នេះ​ដែល​កន្លង​ទៅ​ប្រព័ន្ធ​នេះ បាន​ផ្តល់​អត្ថ​ប្រយោជន៍​ស្ទើរ​តែ​ទាំង​ស្រុង​ចំពោះ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​ជា ពិសេស​នៅ​ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ នៅ​ពេល​ដែល​គណបក្ស​នានា​ជា​គូ​ប្រជែង​សំខាន់​នឹង​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន បាន​បំបែក​ខ្លួន​រហូត​ដល់ ៤ គឺ​មាន​គណបក្ស សម រង្សី គណបក្ស​សិទ្ធិ​មនុស្ស គណបក្ស នរោត្តម រណឫទិ្ធ និង​គណបក្ស ហ៊្វុន​ស៊ិន​ប៉ិច​។ លទ្ធផល​នៃ​ការ​បោះឆ្នោត​បង្ហាញ​ច្បាស់​ថា គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​ទទួល​បាន​ត្រឹម​តែ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត ៥៨,១% នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​សរុប ប៉ុន្តែ​ទទួល​បាន​អាសនៈ​នៅ​ក្នុង​រដ្ឋសភា​រហូត​ជាង ៧៣% នៃ​អាសនៈ​សរុប ចំនួន ១២៣ ស្មើ​នឹង ៩០ អាសនៈ។

ផ្ទុយ​ទៅ​វិញ​គណបក្ស​ទាំង ៤ រួម​នឹង​គណបក្ស​ផ្សេងៗ​ទៀត​ទទួល​បាន​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​ដល់ ៤១,៩% នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​សរុប ប៉ុន្តែ​ទទួល​បាន​អាសនៈ​នៅ​ក្នុង​រដ្ឋសភា​ត្រឹម​តែ​ប្រមាណ​ជាង ២៦% នៃ អាសនៈ​សរុប ១២៣ ស្មើ​នឹង ៣៣ អាសនៈ​ប៉ុណ្ណោះ​។ ប្រសិន​បើ​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ អាច​ទទួល​បាន​ត្រឹម​រង្វង់ ៤៣ អាសនៈ សម្រាប់​ការ​បោះឆ្នោត​អាណត្តិ​នេះ នោះ​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​នៅ​តែ​រក្សា​បាន​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​ភាគ​ច្រើន​ដាច់​ខាត​នៅ ក្នុង​រដ្ឋសភា និង​អាច​បង្កើត​រាជ​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​តែ​ឯង​បាន ប៉ុន្តែ​មិន​មាន​អាសនៈ​ភាគ​ច្រើន​លើស​លប់​ពីរ​ភាគ បី​ដើម្បី​ធ្វើ​កិច្ចការ​មួយ​ចំនួន ដូចជា ការ​ធ្វើ​វិសោធនកម្ម​រដ្ឋ​ធម្មនុញ្ញ ការ​បោះឆ្នោត​សម្រេច​ដក​អភ័យ​ឯក​សិទ្ធិ​សមាជិក​រដ្ឋសភា​ទេ។

ដូច្នេះ​សម្រាប់​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន ការ​បោះឆ្នោត​អាណត្តិ​នេះ បើ​ទោះ​បី​ជា​ខ្លួន​អាច​រក្សា​បាន​ចំនួន​ភាគរយ​នៃ​សំឡេង​ឆ្នោត​ប្រហាក់​ ប្រហែល​នឹង​ការ​បោះឆ្នោត​អាណត្តិ​មុនៗ​ក៏​ដោយ ក៏​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​ដែល​ខ្លួន​ធ្លាប់​ទទួល​បាន​នឹង​មាន​ការ​ធ្លាក់​ចុះ​។ ការ​ធ្លាក់​ចុះ​ចំនួន​អាសនៈ​នេះ គឺ​បណ្តាល​មក​ពី​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន មាន​គណបក្ស​ប្រឆាំង​មួយ​កាន់​តែ​ខ្លាំង​ជាង​មុន​សម្រាប់​ប្រកួត​ប្រជែង​ ជាមួយ​ខ្លួន៕
ដោយ វណ្ណ វិរ័ន្ត ភ្នំពេញ